Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Heracles win with a probability of 57.11%. A win for VVV-Venlo had a probability of 21.48% and a draw had a probability of 21.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Heracles win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.85%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.5%) and 1-0 (8.45%). The likeliest VVV-Venlo win was 1-2 (5.67%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.79%). The actual scoreline of 5-3 was predicted with a 0.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Heracles would win this match.
-0.38) 
0.24) 
