Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Heracles win with a probability of 57.11%. A win for VVV-Venlo had a probability of 21.48% and a draw had a probability of 21.4%.

The most likely scoreline for a Heracles win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.85%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.5%) and 1-0 (8.45%). The likeliest VVV-Venlo win was 1-2 (5.67%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.79%). The actual scoreline of 5-3 was predicted with a 0.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Heracles would win this match.

Result
Heracles	Draw	VVV-Venlo
57.11% ( -0.38)	21.4% ( 0.24)	21.48% ( 0.14)

Both teams to score 59.42% (

-0.66)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

61.38% (

-0.96)

38.62% (

0.96)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

39.07% (

-1.02)

60.92% (

1.02)

Heracles Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

86.62% (

-0.43)

13.38% (

0.43)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

59.71% (

-0.87)

40.28% (

0.87)

VVV-Venlo Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

68.59% (

-0.42)

31.4% (

0.42)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

32.22% (

-0.49)

67.78% (

0.49)

Score Analysis

Heracles 57.11%

VVV-Venlo 21.48%

Draw 21.4%

Heracles	Draw	VVV-Venlo
2-1 @ 9.85% ( 0.02) 2-0 @ 8.5% ( 0.12) 1-0 @ 8.45% ( 0.25) 3-1 @ 6.6% ( -0.09) 3-0 @ 5.7% ( -0.01) 3-2 @ 3.82% ( -0.1) 4-1 @ 3.32% ( -0.1) 4-0 @ 2.87% ( -0.05) 4-2 @ 1.92% ( -0.08) 5-1 @ 1.34% ( -0.06) 5-0 @ 1.15% ( -0.04) Other @ 3.6% Total : 57.11%	1-1 @ 9.79% ( 0.18) 2-2 @ 5.7% ( -0.05) 0-0 @ 4.2% ( 0.19) 3-3 @ 1.48% ( -0.05) Other @ 0.24% Total : 21.4%	1-2 @ 5.67% ( 0.04) 0-1 @ 4.87% ( 0.16) 0-2 @ 2.82% ( 0.06) 2-3 @ 2.2% ( -0.05) 1-3 @ 2.19% ( -0.01) 0-3 @ 1.09% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.65% Total : 21.48%