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EFL Cup | Third Round
Sep 22, 2021 at 7.45pm UK
Emirates Stadium
AW

Arsenal
3 - 0
AFC Wimbledon

Lacazette (11' pen.), Smith Rowe (77'), Nketiah (80')
FT(HT: 1-0)

McCormick (30'), Heneghan (45')

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Arsenal win with a probability of 59.6%. A draw had a probability of 23.1% and a win for AFC Wimbledon had a probability of 17.28%.

The most likely scoreline for an Arsenal win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.2%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.64%) and 2-1 (9.65%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.93%), while for an AFC Wimbledon win it was 0-1 (6.2%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 6.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Arsenal would win this match.

Result
ArsenalDrawAFC Wimbledon
59.6%23.12%17.28%
Both teams to score 46.66%
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
47.95%52.04%
Over 3.5Under 3.5
26.22%73.77%
Arsenal Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
82.86%17.13%
Over 1.5Under 1.5
52.64%47.36%
AFC Wimbledon Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
56.3%43.69%
Over 1.5Under 1.5
20.13%79.87%
Score Analysis
    Arsenal 59.58%
    AFC Wimbledon 17.28%
    Draw 23.12%
ArsenalDrawAFC Wimbledon
1-0 @ 13.2%
2-0 @ 11.64%
2-1 @ 9.65%
3-0 @ 6.85%
3-1 @ 5.67%
4-0 @ 3.02%
4-1 @ 2.5%
3-2 @ 2.35%
5-0 @ 1.07%
4-2 @ 1.04%
Other @ 2.6%
Total : 59.58%
1-1 @ 10.93%
0-0 @ 7.49%
2-2 @ 3.99%
Other @ 0.71%
Total : 23.12%
0-1 @ 6.2%
1-2 @ 4.53%
0-2 @ 2.57%
1-3 @ 1.25%
2-3 @ 1.1%
Other @ 1.63%
Total : 17.28%

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