Premier League | Gameweek 5

Sep 18, 2021 at 3pm UK

Turf Moor

Burnley
0 - 1
Arsenal

Barnes (19'), Westwood (29')

FT(HT: 0-1)

Odegaard (30')
Tavares (90+2')

Mikel Arteta impressed with Arsenal's battling qualities in win at Burnley

Mikel Arteta admits Arsenal "should have scored more" against Burnley

Odegaard reacts to sublime free kick in Burnley win

Mikel Arteta: 'Martin Odegaard is becoming a real leader for Arsenal'

The Match

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Arsenal win with a probability of 48.72%. A draw had a probability of 27% and a win for Burnley had a probability of 24.28%.

The most likely scoreline for an Arsenal win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.75%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.76%) and 1-2 (8.93%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.58%), while for a Burnley win it was 1-0 (8.87%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 13.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Arsenal in this match.

Result
Burnley	Draw	Arsenal
24.28%	27%	48.72%

Both teams to score 45.43%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

41.28%

58.72%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

20.75%

79.25%

Burnley Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

59.94%

40.06%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

23.3%

76.7%

Arsenal Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

75.79%

24.21%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

41.45%

58.55%

Score Analysis

Burnley 24.28%

Arsenal 48.72%

Draw 27%

Burnley	Draw	Arsenal
1-0 @ 8.87% 2-1 @ 5.76% 2-0 @ 4.06% 3-1 @ 1.76% 3-2 @ 1.25% 3-0 @ 1.24% Other @ 1.35% Total : 24.28%	1-1 @ 12.58% 0-0 @ 9.7% 2-2 @ 4.08% Other @ 0.64% Total : 27%	0-1 @ 13.75% 0-2 @ 9.76% 1-2 @ 8.93% 0-3 @ 4.61% 1-3 @ 4.22% 2-3 @ 1.93% 0-4 @ 1.64% 1-4 @ 1.5% Other @ 2.39% Total : 48.72%