Crewe look strong at League Two level this season and will fancy their chances of overcoming a second-string Grimsby on Tuesday night. We are expecting it to be a tight match, as Crewe will also make a number of changes, but the visitors should have enough to progress to the second round.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Grimsby Town win with a probability of 45.09%. A win for Crewe Alexandra had a probability of 29.78% and a draw had a probability of 25.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Grimsby Town win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.86%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.19%) and 2-0 (7.61%). The likeliest Crewe Alexandra win was 0-1 (7.71%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.9%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 1.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Grimsby Town would win this match.
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