Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Northampton Town win with a probability of 42.22%. A win for Arsenal Under-21s had a probability of 33.18% and a draw had a probability of 24.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Northampton Town win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.93%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.49%) and 2-0 (6.6%). The likeliest Arsenal Under-21s win was 1-2 (7.77%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.48%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 3.5% likelihood.
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