Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Swindon Town win with a probability of 44%. A win for Northampton Town had a probability of 29.34% and a draw had a probability of 26.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Swindon Town win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.58%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.86%) and 2-0 (8.11%). The likeliest Northampton Town win was 0-1 (9.03%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.64%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 6.9% likelihood.
0.08) 
-0.1) 
