SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 57.52%. A draw had a probability of 21.4% and a win for SBV Excelsior had a probability of 21.04%.
The most likely scoreline for an AZ Alkmaar win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.88%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.74%) and 0-1 (8.73%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.87%), while for a SBV Excelsior win it was 2-1 (5.58%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 9.9% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| SBV Excelsior | Draw | AZ Alkmaar |
21.04% ( 0.03) | 21.45% ( 0.01) | 57.52% ( -0.03) |
| Both teams to score 58.57% ( 0.02) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 60.57% ( 0.01) | 39.43% ( -0) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 38.23% ( 0.01) | 61.77% ( -0) |
| SBV Excelsior Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 67.73% ( 0.03) | 32.27% ( -0.03) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 31.23% ( 0.03) | 68.77% ( -0.03) |
| AZ Alkmaar Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 86.48% ( -0) | 13.52% ( 0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 59.43% ( -0.01) | 40.57% ( 0.02) |
| Score Analysis |
| SBV Excelsior | Draw | AZ Alkmaar |
| 2-1 @ 5.58% ( 0.01) 1-0 @ 4.93% ( 0)2-0 @ 2.79% ( 0)3-2 @ 2.11% ( 0)3-1 @ 2.11% ( 0)3-0 @ 1.05% ( 0)Other @ 2.47% Total : 21.04% | 1-1 @ 9.87% ( 0) 2-2 @ 5.59% ( 0)0-0 @ 4.36% ( -0)3-3 @ 1.41% ( 0)Other @ 0.22% Total : 21.45% | 1-2 @ 9.88% ( -0) 0-2 @ 8.74% ( -0.01)0-1 @ 8.73% ( -0)1-3 @ 6.59% ( -0)0-3 @ 5.83% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 3.73% ( 0)1-4 @ 3.3% ( -0)0-4 @ 2.92% ( -0)2-4 @ 1.86% 1-5 @ 1.32% ( -0)0-5 @ 1.17% ( -0)Other @ 3.47% Total : 57.52% |
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