SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Heracles win with a probability of 59.46%. A draw had a probability of 21.6% and a win for SBV Excelsior had a probability of 18.98%.
The most likely scoreline for a Heracles win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.02%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.95%) and 2-0 (9.83%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.14%), while for a SBV Excelsior win it was 0-1 (5.17%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 6.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Heracles would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Heracles | Draw | SBV Excelsior |
59.46% ( 0.89) | 21.55% ( -0.37) | 18.98% ( -0.53) |
| Both teams to score 54.72% ( 0.31) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 57.11% ( 0.86) | 42.89% ( -0.85) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 34.7% ( 0.84) | 65.29% ( -0.84) |
| Heracles Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 85.94% ( 0.56) | 14.06% ( -0.56) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 58.36% ( 1.09) | 41.63% ( -1.09) |
| SBV Excelsior Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 63.66% ( -0.06) | 36.33% ( 0.06) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 26.88% ( -0.06) | 73.12% ( 0.06) |
| Score Analysis |
| Heracles | Draw | SBV Excelsior |
| 1-0 @ 10.02% ( -0.17) 2-1 @ 9.95% ( 0.01)2-0 @ 9.83% ( 0.03)3-1 @ 6.51% ( 0.14)3-0 @ 6.43% ( 0.15)3-2 @ 3.3% ( 0.06)4-1 @ 3.19% ( 0.13)4-0 @ 3.15% ( 0.13)4-2 @ 1.62% ( 0.06)5-1 @ 1.25% ( 0.08)5-0 @ 1.24% ( 0.08)Other @ 2.97% Total : 59.46% | 1-1 @ 10.14% ( -0.2) 0-0 @ 5.11% ( -0.2)2-2 @ 5.04% ( -0)3-3 @ 1.11% ( 0.02)Other @ 0.15% Total : 21.55% | 0-1 @ 5.17% ( -0.21) 1-2 @ 5.14% ( -0.11)0-2 @ 2.62% ( -0.11)1-3 @ 1.73% ( -0.04)2-3 @ 1.7% ( -0)Other @ 2.63% Total : 18.98% |
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