SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajax win with a probability of 62.27%. A win for Heracles had a probability of 19.05% and a draw had a probability of 18.7%.
The most likely scoreline for an Ajax win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.31%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-1 (7.45%) and 2-0 (7.3%). The likeliest Heracles win was 1-2 (4.95%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (7.76%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 4.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Ajax would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Ajax | Draw | Heracles |
62.27% ( 0.02) | 18.69% ( 0.02) | 19.05% ( -0.04) |
| Both teams to score 65.52% ( -0.16) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 71.02% ( -0.17) | 28.98% ( 0.17) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 50.05% ( -0.21) | 49.95% ( 0.21) |
| Ajax Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 90.92% ( -0.04) | 9.08% ( 0.04) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 69.14% ( -0.11) | 30.85% ( 0.11) |
| Heracles Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 72.06% ( -0.15) | 27.94% ( 0.15) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 36.43% ( -0.19) | 63.57% ( 0.19) |
| Score Analysis |
| Ajax | Draw | Heracles |
| 2-1 @ 9.31% ( 0.02) 3-1 @ 7.45% 2-0 @ 7.3% ( 0.04)1-0 @ 6.09% ( 0.05)3-0 @ 5.84% ( 0.02)3-2 @ 4.75% ( -0.02)4-1 @ 4.47% ( -0.01)4-0 @ 3.5% ( 0.01)4-2 @ 2.85% ( -0.02)5-1 @ 2.14% ( -0.01)5-0 @ 1.68% 5-2 @ 1.37% ( -0.01)4-3 @ 1.21% ( -0.01)Other @ 4.32% Total : 62.27% | 1-1 @ 7.76% ( 0.03) 2-2 @ 5.94% ( -0.01)0-0 @ 2.54% ( 0.03)3-3 @ 2.02% ( -0.02)Other @ 0.44% Total : 18.69% | 1-2 @ 4.95% 0-1 @ 3.23% ( 0.02)2-3 @ 2.52% ( -0.02)1-3 @ 2.1% ( -0.01)0-2 @ 2.06% ( 0)Other @ 4.18% Total : 19.05% |
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