While both sides suffered hefty defeats last week, the visitors looked much more fluid in attack, which we expect to see again here against newly-promoted opposition. With both defences failing to impress so far this campaign, we expect both teams to get on the scoresheet but fancy NEC to come away with the victory.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Heracles win with a probability of 53.65%. A draw had a probability of 23.7% and a win for NEC had a probability of 22.65%.
The most likely scoreline for a Heracles win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.8%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.76%) and 2-0 (9.38%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.24%), while for a NEC win it was 0-1 (6.48%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Heracles would win this match.
0.42) 
-0.07) 
