SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a NEC win with a probability of 37.72%. A win for Emmen had a probability of 37.45% and a draw had a probability of 24.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a NEC win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.4%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.06%) and 2-0 (5.83%). The likeliest Emmen win was 1-2 (8.37%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.61%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that NEC would win this match.
| Result | ||
| NEC | Draw | Emmen |
37.72% ( -0.24) | 24.84% ( 0.08) | 37.45% ( 0.16) |
| Both teams to score 58.37% ( -0.29) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 55.12% ( -0.37) | 44.88% ( 0.38) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 32.76% ( -0.36) | 67.24% ( 0.36) |
| NEC Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.47% ( -0.29) | 23.53% ( 0.3) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 42.43% ( -0.43) | 57.58% ( 0.43) |
| Emmen Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.33% ( -0.08) | 23.67% ( 0.08) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 42.22% ( -0.12) | 57.78% ( 0.12) |
| Score Analysis |
| NEC | Draw | Emmen |
| 2-1 @ 8.4% ( -0.03) 1-0 @ 8.06% ( 0.06)2-0 @ 5.83% ( -0.01)3-1 @ 4.05% ( -0.05)3-2 @ 2.92% ( -0.04)3-0 @ 2.81% ( -0.03)4-1 @ 1.47% ( -0.03)4-2 @ 1.06% ( -0.02)4-0 @ 1.02% ( -0.02)Other @ 2.1% Total : 37.72% | 1-1 @ 11.61% ( 0.06) 2-2 @ 6.05% ( -0.04)0-0 @ 5.57% ( 0.09)3-3 @ 1.4% ( -0.02)Other @ 0.2% Total : 24.83% | 1-2 @ 8.37% ( 0.02) 0-1 @ 8.03% ( 0.11)0-2 @ 5.78% ( 0.07)1-3 @ 4.02% ( 0)2-3 @ 2.91% ( -0.02)0-3 @ 2.78% ( 0.02)1-4 @ 1.45% ( -0)2-4 @ 1.05% ( -0.01)0-4 @ 1% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.08% Total : 37.45% |
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