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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajax win with a probability of 71.1%. A draw had a probability of 15.6% and a win for NEC had a probability of 13.25%.
The most likely scoreline for an Ajax win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.83%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-3 (8.08%) and 0-2 (7.75%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.43%), while for a NEC win it was 2-1 (3.66%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 6.4% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| NEC | Draw | Ajax |
13.25% ( 1.63) | 15.64% ( 1.27) | 71.1% ( -2.9) |
| Both teams to score 63.59% ( -0.11) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 74.44% ( -2.24) | 25.56% ( 2.24) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 54.35% ( -2.95) | 45.65% ( 2.96) |
| NEC Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 67.96% ( 0.61) | 32.04% ( -0.6) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 31.49% ( 0.68) | 68.5% ( -0.68) |
| Ajax Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 93.57% ( -0.99) | 6.42% ( 1) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 75.95% ( -2.81) | 24.05% ( 2.82) |
| Score Analysis |
| NEC | Draw | Ajax |
| 2-1 @ 3.66% ( 0.42) 1-0 @ 2.34% ( 0.36)3-2 @ 1.91% ( 0.15)3-1 @ 1.39% ( 0.18)2-0 @ 1.33% ( 0.22)Other @ 2.63% Total : 13.25% | 1-1 @ 6.43% ( 0.65) 2-2 @ 5.02% ( 0.31)0-0 @ 2.06% ( 0.29)3-3 @ 1.74% ( 0.03)Other @ 0.39% Total : 15.64% | 1-2 @ 8.83% ( 0.41) 1-3 @ 8.08% ( -0.1)0-2 @ 7.75% ( 0.24)0-3 @ 7.1% ( -0.21)0-1 @ 5.65% ( 0.49)1-4 @ 5.54% ( -0.41)0-4 @ 4.87% ( -0.45)2-3 @ 4.6% ( 0.02)2-4 @ 3.16% ( -0.18)1-5 @ 3.04% ( -0.43)0-5 @ 2.68% ( -0.43)2-5 @ 1.73% ( -0.21)1-6 @ 1.39% ( -0.29)0-6 @ 1.22% ( -0.28)3-4 @ 1.2% ( -0.05)Other @ 4.27% Total : 71.1% |
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