SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 2 | Feyenoord | 6 | 12 | 16 |
| 3 | PSV Eindhoven | 6 | 17 | 15 |
| 4 | AZ Alkmaar | 6 | 7 | 14 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Ajax | 6 | 18 | 18 |
| 2 | Feyenoord | 6 | 12 | 16 |
| 3 | PSV Eindhoven | 6 | 17 | 15 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a PSV Eindhoven win with a probability of 50.63%. A win for Feyenoord had a probability of 27.85% and a draw had a probability of 21.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a PSV Eindhoven win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.18%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (6.29%) and 1-0 (6.23%). The likeliest Feyenoord win was 1-2 (6.63%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.09%). The actual scoreline of 4-3 was predicted with a 1.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that PSV Eindhoven would win this match.
| Result | ||
| PSV Eindhoven | Draw | Feyenoord |
50.63% ( -0.57) | 21.52% ( 0.2) | 27.85% ( 0.37) |
| Both teams to score 66.58% ( -0.42) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 67.53% ( -0.68) | 32.47% ( 0.68) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 45.89% ( -0.79) | 54.11% ( 0.79) |
| PSV Eindhoven Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 86.73% ( -0.41) | 13.27% ( 0.41) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 59.93% ( -0.84) | 40.07% ( 0.84) |
| Feyenoord Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.77% ( -0.12) | 23.23% ( 0.12) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 42.86% ( -0.18) | 57.14% ( 0.18) |
| Score Analysis |
| PSV Eindhoven | Draw | Feyenoord |
| 2-1 @ 9.18% ( 0.02) 2-0 @ 6.29% ( 0.04)1-0 @ 6.23% ( 0.13)3-1 @ 6.18% ( -0.08)3-2 @ 4.51% ( -0.08)3-0 @ 4.23% ( -0.04)4-1 @ 3.12% ( -0.09)4-2 @ 2.28% ( -0.07)4-0 @ 2.14% ( -0.06)5-1 @ 1.26% ( -0.06)4-3 @ 1.11% ( -0.04)5-2 @ 0.92% ( -0.04)Other @ 3.2% Total : 50.63% | 1-1 @ 9.09% ( 0.16) 2-2 @ 6.7% ( -0.01)0-0 @ 3.08% ( 0.11)3-3 @ 2.19% ( -0.04)Other @ 0.46% Total : 21.52% | 1-2 @ 6.63% ( 0.09) 0-1 @ 4.5% ( 0.15)0-2 @ 3.28% ( 0.1)2-3 @ 3.26% ( -0.02)1-3 @ 3.23% ( 0.03)0-3 @ 1.6% ( 0.04)2-4 @ 1.19% ( -0.01)1-4 @ 1.18% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.98% Total : 27.85% |
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