Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a PSV Eindhoven win with a probability of 70.15%. A draw had a probability of 17.4% and a win for Heerenveen had a probability of 12.47%.
The most likely scoreline for a PSV Eindhoven win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.72%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.6%) and 1-0 (9.05%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.1%), while for a Heerenveen win it was 1-2 (3.63%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 7.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that PSV Eindhoven would win this match.