Groningen have been highly porous at the back away from home, and Sparta will be aiming to take advantage of their visitors' defensive frailties. We are tipping the hosts to come out on top, albeit by only a narrow margin.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sparta Rotterdam win with a probability of 44.23%. A win for Groningen had a probability of 30.34% and a draw had a probability of 25.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sparta Rotterdam win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.02%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.09%) and 2-0 (7.55%). The likeliest Groningen win was 0-1 (8.01%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.06%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Sparta Rotterdam in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Sparta Rotterdam.
0.52) 
-0.22) 
