Taking points off Ajax on their own turf is a very daunting task, and Groningen are the latest team to try to foil the Dutch champions. We are tipping Ajax to cruise to a comfortable victory at the sound of the final whistle. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajax win with a probability of 85.15%. A draw had a probability of 9.5% and a win for Groningen had a probability of 5.34%.

The most likely scoreline for an Ajax win was 3-0 with a probability of 9.66%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.55%) and 4-0 (8.19%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (4.12%), while for a Groningen win it was 1-2 (1.68%). The actual scoreline of 6-1 was predicted with a 2.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Ajax would win this match.

Result
Ajax	Draw	Groningen
85.15% ( 0.04)	9.51% ( -0.02)	5.34% ( -0.02)

Both teams to score 53.97% (

0.03)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

79.1% (

0.07)

20.9% (

-0.07)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

60.64% (

0.1)

39.37% (

-0.1)

Ajax Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

96.64% (

0.02)

3.36% (

-0.02)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

85.22% (

0.06)

14.78% (

-0.05)

Groningen Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

55.84% (

0.02)

44.16% (

-0.02)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

19.75% (

0.02)

80.25% (

-0.01)

Score Analysis

Ajax 85.15%

Groningen 5.34%

Draw 9.51%

Ajax	Draw	Groningen
3-0 @ 9.66% ( -0.01) 2-0 @ 8.55% ( -0.02) 4-0 @ 8.19% ( 0) 3-1 @ 7.9% ( -0) 2-1 @ 6.99% ( -0.01) 4-1 @ 6.7% ( 0.01) 5-0 @ 5.56% ( 0.01) 1-0 @ 5.04% ( -0.02) 5-1 @ 4.54% ( 0.01) 3-2 @ 3.23% 6-0 @ 3.14% ( 0.01) 4-2 @ 2.74% ( 0) 6-1 @ 2.57% ( 0.01) 5-2 @ 1.86% ( 0) 7-0 @ 1.52% ( 0.01) 7-1 @ 1.25% ( 0.01) 6-2 @ 1.05% ( 0.01) Other @ 4.67% Total : 85.15%	1-1 @ 4.12% ( -0.01) 2-2 @ 2.86% ( -0) 0-0 @ 1.49% ( -0.01) Other @ 1.05% Total : 9.51%	1-2 @ 1.68% ( -0) 0-1 @ 1.21% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.45% Total : 5.34%