SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 2 | Dundalk | 21 | 17 | 41 |
| 3 | Derry City | 22 | 17 | 40 |
| 4 | St Patrick's Athletic | 23 | 11 | 35 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derry City win with a probability of 48.19%. A win for Riga FC had a probability of 27.28% and a draw had a probability of 24.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Derry City win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.95%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.46%) and 2-0 (8.11%). The likeliest Riga FC win was 0-1 (7.11%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.6%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 4.1% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Derry City | Draw | Riga FC |
48.19% ( 0.05) | 24.53% ( -0.02) | 27.28% ( -0.03) |
| Both teams to score 55.37% ( 0.04) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 52.98% ( 0.07) | 47.02% ( -0.07) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 30.74% ( 0.06) | 69.26% ( -0.06) |
| Derry City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 80.43% ( 0.05) | 19.58% ( -0.05) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 48.5% ( 0.08) | 51.5% ( -0.08) |
| Riga FC Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 68.84% ( 0.01) | 31.16% ( -0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 32.51% ( 0.01) | 67.49% ( -0.01) |
| Score Analysis |
| Derry City | Draw | Riga FC |
| 1-0 @ 9.95% ( -0.01) 2-1 @ 9.46% ( 0)2-0 @ 8.11% ( 0)3-1 @ 5.14% ( 0.01)3-0 @ 4.41% ( 0.01)3-2 @ 3% ( 0.01)4-1 @ 2.1% ( 0.01)4-0 @ 1.8% ( 0.01)4-2 @ 1.22% ( 0)Other @ 3% Total : 48.19% | 1-1 @ 11.6% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 6.1% ( -0.02)2-2 @ 5.52% ( 0)3-3 @ 1.17% ( 0)Other @ 0.15% Total : 24.53% | 0-1 @ 7.11% ( -0.02) 1-2 @ 6.76% ( -0)0-2 @ 4.15% ( -0.01)1-3 @ 2.63% ( -0)2-3 @ 2.14% ( 0)0-3 @ 1.61% ( -0)Other @ 2.88% Total : 27.28% |
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