SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 2 | Dundalk | 22 | 16 | 41 |
| 3 | Derry City | 22 | 17 | 40 |
| 4 | St Patrick's Athletic | 23 | 11 | 35 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Riga FC win with a probability of 37.05%. A win for Derry City had a probability of 35.51% and a draw had a probability of 27.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Riga FC win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.81%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8%) and 2-0 (6.67%). The likeliest Derry City win was 0-1 (10.53%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.98%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 6.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Riga FC would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Riga FC | Draw | Derry City |
37.05% ( -0.04) | 27.44% ( -0.02) | 35.51% ( 0.06) |
| Both teams to score 49.52% ( 0.08) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 43.89% ( 0.1) | 56.11% ( -0.1) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 22.82% ( 0.08) | 77.18% ( -0.08) |
| Riga FC Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 70.84% ( 0.03) | 29.16% ( -0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 34.91% ( 0.03) | 65.1% ( -0.03) |
| Derry City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.9% ( 0.09) | 30.1% ( -0.09) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 33.76% ( 0.11) | 66.24% ( -0.11) |
| Score Analysis |
| Riga FC | Draw | Derry City |
| 1-0 @ 10.81% ( -0.04) 2-1 @ 8% 2-0 @ 6.67% ( -0.02)3-1 @ 3.29% ( 0)3-0 @ 2.74% ( -0)3-2 @ 1.97% ( 0.01)4-1 @ 1.01% ( 0)Other @ 2.55% Total : 37.04% | 1-1 @ 12.98% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 8.78% ( -0.03)2-2 @ 4.8% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.87% Total : 27.43% | 0-1 @ 10.53% ( -0.02) 1-2 @ 7.8% ( 0.01)0-2 @ 6.33% ( 0.01)1-3 @ 3.12% ( 0.01)0-3 @ 2.53% ( 0.01)2-3 @ 1.92% ( 0.01)1-4 @ 0.94% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.35% Total : 35.51% |
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