SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 8 | Drogheda United | 19 | -10 | 21 |
| 9 | Finn Harps | 19 | -19 | 11 |
| 10 | University College Dublin | 19 | -28 | 9 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 2 | Dundalk | 19 | 14 | 37 |
| 3 | Derry City | 20 | 15 | 34 |
| 4 | St Patrick's Athletic | 20 | 9 | 31 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derry City win with a probability of 66.3%. A draw had a probability of 21% and a win for University College Dublin had a probability of 12.71%.
The most likely scoreline for a Derry City win was 0-1 with a probability of 14.19%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (13.53%) and 1-2 (9.35%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.8%), while for a University College Dublin win it was 1-0 (5.14%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 14.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Derry City in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Derry City.
| Result | ||
| University College Dublin | Draw | Derry City |
12.71% ( -0.01) | 20.99% ( 0.09) | 66.3% ( -0.08) |
| Both teams to score 42.46% ( -0.29) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 48.1% ( -0.38) | 51.89% ( 0.38) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 26.35% ( -0.33) | 73.64% ( 0.33) |
| University College Dublin Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 49.87% ( -0.25) | 50.13% ( 0.25) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 15.25% ( -0.18) | 84.75% ( 0.18) |
| Derry City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 85.15% ( -0.15) | 14.85% ( 0.15) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 56.83% ( -0.29) | 43.16% ( 0.29) |
| Score Analysis |
| University College Dublin | Draw | Derry City |
| 1-0 @ 5.14% ( 0.04) 2-1 @ 3.39% ( -0.02)2-0 @ 1.77% ( 0)Other @ 2.42% Total : 12.71% | 1-1 @ 9.8% ( 0.03) 0-0 @ 7.44% ( 0.11)2-2 @ 3.23% ( -0.03)Other @ 0.51% Total : 20.99% | 0-1 @ 14.19% ( 0.14) 0-2 @ 13.53% ( 0.06)1-2 @ 9.35% ( -0.03)0-3 @ 8.61% ( -0.01)1-3 @ 5.94% ( -0.05)0-4 @ 4.11% ( -0.02)1-4 @ 2.84% ( -0.04)2-3 @ 2.05% ( -0.03)0-5 @ 1.57% ( -0.02)1-5 @ 1.08% ( -0.02)2-4 @ 0.98% ( -0.02)Other @ 2.04% Total : 66.28% |
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