SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 2 | Dundalk | 18 | 13 | 34 |
| 3 | Derry City | 19 | 15 | 33 |
| 4 | St Patrick's Athletic | 19 | 8 | 28 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Shamrock Rovers | 19 | 21 | 42 |
| 2 | Dundalk | 18 | 13 | 34 |
| 3 | Derry City | 19 | 15 | 33 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derry City win with a probability of 46.51%. A draw had a probability of 27% and a win for Dundalk had a probability of 26.47%.
The most likely scoreline for a Derry City win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.88%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.02%) and 2-1 (8.89%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.69%), while for a Dundalk win it was 0-1 (9.06%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 6.3% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Derry City | Draw | Dundalk |
46.51% ( 1.32) | 27.01% ( 0.05) | 26.47% ( -1.37) |
| Both teams to score 47.23% ( -1.08) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 42.66% ( -0.92) | 57.33% ( 0.92) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 21.84% ( -0.73) | 78.16% ( 0.73) |
| Derry City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.35% ( 0.23) | 24.64% ( -0.24) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 40.84% ( 0.33) | 59.16% ( -0.33) |
| Dundalk Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 62.67% ( -1.63) | 37.33% ( 1.63) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 25.89% ( -1.64) | 74.11% ( 1.64) |
| Score Analysis |
| Derry City | Draw | Dundalk |
| 1-0 @ 12.88% ( 0.53) 2-0 @ 9.02% ( 0.43)2-1 @ 8.89% ( 0.04)3-0 @ 4.21% ( 0.23)3-1 @ 4.15% ( 0.05)3-2 @ 2.05% ( -0.07)4-0 @ 1.48% ( 0.09)4-1 @ 1.45% ( 0.03)Other @ 2.37% Total : 46.51% | 1-1 @ 12.69% ( -0.03) 0-0 @ 9.2% ( 0.32)2-2 @ 4.38% ( -0.18)Other @ 0.73% Total : 27% | 0-1 @ 9.06% ( -0.08) 1-2 @ 6.26% ( -0.3)0-2 @ 4.47% ( -0.25)1-3 @ 2.06% ( -0.2)0-3 @ 1.47% ( -0.15)2-3 @ 1.44% ( -0.13)Other @ 1.73% Total : 26.47% |
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