SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 4 | St Patrick's Athletic | 19 | 8 | 28 |
| 5 | Sligo Rovers | 19 | 2 | 25 |
| 6 | Shelbourne | 18 | -6 | 24 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 2 | Dundalk | 18 | 13 | 34 |
| 3 | Derry City | 19 | 15 | 33 |
| 4 | St Patrick's Athletic | 19 | 8 | 28 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sligo Rovers win with a probability of 37.04%. A win for Derry City had a probability of 34.67% and a draw had a probability of 28.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sligo Rovers win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.7%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.8%) and 2-0 (6.9%). The likeliest Derry City win was 0-1 (11.22%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.23%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 7.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Sligo Rovers would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Sligo Rovers | Draw | Derry City |
37.04% ( 1.04) | 28.29% ( -0.14) | 34.67% ( -0.89) |
| Both teams to score 46.89% ( 0.37) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 40.65% ( 0.47) | 59.34% ( -0.47) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 20.26% ( 0.36) | 79.73% ( -0.36) |
| Sligo Rovers Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.24% ( 0.89) | 30.76% ( -0.88) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 32.97% ( 1.03) | 67.03% ( -1.03) |
| Derry City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 67.72% ( -0.34) | 32.27% ( 0.34) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 31.22% ( -0.39) | 68.77% ( 0.39) |
| Score Analysis |
| Sligo Rovers | Draw | Derry City |
| 1-0 @ 11.7% ( 0.08) 2-1 @ 7.8% ( 0.17)2-0 @ 6.9% ( 0.21)3-1 @ 3.07% ( 0.14)3-0 @ 2.71% ( 0.15)3-2 @ 1.73% ( 0.06)4-1 @ 0.9% ( 0.06)Other @ 2.22% Total : 37.04% | 1-1 @ 13.23% ( -0.04) 0-0 @ 9.93% ( -0.17)2-2 @ 4.41% ( 0.05)Other @ 0.71% Total : 28.28% | 0-1 @ 11.22% ( -0.31) 1-2 @ 7.48% ( -0.09)0-2 @ 6.35% ( -0.24)1-3 @ 2.82% ( -0.06)0-3 @ 2.39% ( -0.11)2-3 @ 1.66% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.73% Total : 34.66% |
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