Neither side have shown many faults whatsoever during the early weeks of the season, undoubtedly helped by starting competitive games earlier than other teams. On this particular occasion, we expect Fenerbahce to edge an entertaining tussle, but Twente keeping themselves in the tie ahead of the second leg.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fenerbahce win with a probability of 38.92%. A win for FC Twente had a probability of 38.26% and a draw had a probability of 22.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Fenerbahce win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.28%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (5.89%) and 2-0 (4.96%). The likeliest FC Twente win was 1-2 (8.2%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.83%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 0.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Fenerbahce would win this match.
