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Thursday, March 28
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Europa Conference League | Second Qualifying Round | 2nd Leg
Jul 28, 2022 at 6pm UK
Bakcell Arena
A

Neftchi Baku
3 - 0
Aris

Donyoh (38'), Silvestre (57'), Saief (62')
Salahli (25'), Stankovic (32'), Yusifli (90+2'), Lawal (90+2')
FT(HT: 1-0)

Szoke (4'), Brorsson (6'), Brown (40'), Delmiro (59'), Shpilevsky (88')
Brown (82')
Coverage of the Europa Conference League Second Qualifying Round clash between Neftchi Baku and Aris Thessaloniki.

Form, Standings, Stats

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Last Game: Aris 2-0 Neftchi Baku
Thursday, July 21 at 6.30pm in Europa Conference League
:no data 356|l|156:DIVision:.!d!.:Sport:1:

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Neftchi Baku win with a probability of 36.82%. A win for Aris Thessaloniki had a probability of 35.74% and a draw had a probability of 27.4%.

The most likely scoreline for a Neftchi Baku win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.78%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.97%) and 2-0 (6.62%). The likeliest Aris Thessaloniki win was 0-1 (10.58%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.98%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 2.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Neftchi Baku would win this match.

Result
Neftchi BakuDrawAris Thessaloniki
36.82% (0.275 0.27) 27.44% (0.0070000000000014 0.01) 35.74% (-0.288 -0.29)
Both teams to score 49.51% (-0.033999999999999 -0.03)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
43.87% (-0.039999999999999 -0.04)56.12% (0.032999999999994 0.03)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
22.81% (-0.033000000000001 -0.03)77.19% (0.025999999999996 0.03)
Neftchi Baku Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
70.69% (0.148 0.15)29.3% (-0.154 -0.15)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
34.73% (0.182 0.18)65.27% (-0.18799999999999 -0.19)
Aris Thessaloniki Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
70.03% (-0.19999999999999 -0.2)29.97% (0.194 0.19)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
33.91% (-0.24 -0.24)66.08% (0.23399999999999 0.23)
Score Analysis
    Neftchi Baku 36.82%
    Aris Thessaloniki 35.73%
    Draw 27.43%
Neftchi BakuDrawAris Thessaloniki
1-0 @ 10.78% (0.059999999999999 0.06)
2-1 @ 7.97% (0.035 0.04)
2-0 @ 6.62% (0.064 0.06)
3-1 @ 3.26% (0.028 0.03)
3-0 @ 2.71% (0.037 0.04)
3-2 @ 1.97% (0.006 0.01)
4-1 @ 1% (0.013 0.01)
Other @ 2.52%
Total : 36.82%
1-1 @ 12.98%
0-0 @ 8.78% (0.012 0.01)
2-2 @ 4.8% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
Other @ 0.87%
Total : 27.43%
0-1 @ 10.58% (-0.039999999999999 -0.04)
1-2 @ 7.83% (-0.041 -0.04)
0-2 @ 6.38% (-0.061 -0.06)
1-3 @ 3.14% (-0.034 -0.03)
0-3 @ 2.56% (-0.038 -0.04)
2-3 @ 1.93% (-0.013 -0.01)
1-4 @ 0.95% (-0.015 -0.02)
Other @ 2.37%
Total : 35.73%

Read more!
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Form Guide
Last Game: Aris 2-0 Neftchi Baku
Thursday, July 21 at 6.30pm in Europa Conference League
Last Game: Maccabi Haifa 4-0 Neftchi Baku
Thursday, August 26 at 6pm in Europa Conference League
Last Game: Neftchi Baku 3-3 Maccabi Haifa
Thursday, August 19 at 6pm in Europa Conference League
Last Game: HJK Helsinki 3-0 Neftchi Baku
Thursday, August 12 at 5pm in Europa League
Last Game: Neftchi Baku 2-2 HJK Helsinki
Tuesday, August 3 at 6pm in Europa League
Last Game: Neftchi Baku 0-1 Olympiacos
Wednesday, July 28 at 6pm in Champions League
Last Game: Gomel 1-2 Aris
Wednesday, July 27 at 7pm in Europa Conference League
Last Game: Aris 5-1 Gomel
Thursday, July 21 at 7pm in Europa Conference League
Last Game: Aris 2-0 Neftchi Baku
Thursday, July 21 at 6.30pm in Europa Conference League
Last Game: PAS Giannina 0-3 Aris
Tuesday, May 17 at 6pm in Greek Superleague
Last Game: Aris 3-2 AEK Athens
Saturday, May 14 at 6pm in Greek Superleague
Last Game: PAOK 0-1 Aris
Wednesday, May 11 at 4.30pm in Greek Superleague


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