Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Aris Thessaloniki win with a probability of 48.08%. A draw had a probability of 26.8% and a win for Neftchi Baku had a probability of 25.12%.
The most likely scoreline for an Aris Thessaloniki win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.2%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.44%) and 2-1 (8.99%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.57%), while for a Neftchi Baku win it was 0-1 (8.8%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 9.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Aris Thessaloniki would win this match.
0.1) 
-0.03) 
