SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 3 | AEK Athens | 25 | 13 | 43 |
| 4 | Aris Thessaloniki | 25 | 6 | 42 |
| 5 | Panathinaikos | 25 | 18 | 39 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Aris Thessaloniki win with a probability of 48.08%. A draw had a probability of 26.8% and a win for Neftchi Baku had a probability of 25.12%.
The most likely scoreline for an Aris Thessaloniki win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.2%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.44%) and 2-1 (8.99%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.57%), while for a Neftchi Baku win it was 0-1 (8.8%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 9.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Aris Thessaloniki would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Aris Thessaloniki | Draw | Neftchi Baku |
48.08% ( 0.1) | 26.8% ( -0.03) | 25.12% ( -0.08) |
| Both teams to score 46.71% ( 0.01) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 42.55% ( 0.04) | 57.45% ( -0.04) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 21.75% ( 0.03) | 78.25% ( -0.03) |
| Aris Thessaloniki Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.05% ( 0.07) | 23.95% ( -0.07) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 41.82% ( 0.1) | 58.18% ( -0.1) |
| Neftchi Baku Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 61.43% ( -0.05) | 38.57% ( 0.05) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 24.68% ( -0.04) | 75.32% ( 0.05) |
| Score Analysis |
| Aris Thessaloniki | Draw | Neftchi Baku |
| 1-0 @ 13.2% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 9.44% ( 0.02)2-1 @ 8.99% ( 0.01)3-0 @ 4.5% ( 0.02)3-1 @ 4.28% ( 0.01)3-2 @ 2.04% ( 0)4-0 @ 1.61% ( 0.01)4-1 @ 1.53% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.5% Total : 48.08% | 1-1 @ 12.57% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 9.24% ( -0.02)2-2 @ 4.28% ( -0)Other @ 0.71% Total : 26.8% | 0-1 @ 8.8% ( -0.03) 1-2 @ 5.99% ( -0.01)0-2 @ 4.19% ( -0.02)1-3 @ 1.9% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 1.36% ( -0)0-3 @ 1.33% ( -0.01)Other @ 1.54% Total : 25.12% |
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