SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Porto win with a probability of 63.03%. A draw had a probability of 18.8% and a win for Shakhtar Donetsk had a probability of 18.17%.
The most likely scoreline for a Porto win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.51%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (7.92%) and 3-1 (7.46%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.08%), while for a Shakhtar Donetsk win it was 1-2 (4.85%). The actual scoreline of 5-3 was predicted with a 0.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Porto would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Porto | Draw | Shakhtar Donetsk |
63.03% ( -0.26) | 18.8% ( 0.03) | 18.17% ( 0.24) |
| Both teams to score 63.26% ( 0.39) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 68.91% ( 0.28) | 31.09% ( -0.28) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 47.5% ( 0.33) | 52.49% ( -0.33) |
| Porto Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 90.49% ( 0.02) | 9.5% ( -0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 68.13% ( 0.04) | 31.87% ( -0.04) |
| Shakhtar Donetsk Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.9% ( 0.41) | 30.1% ( -0.41) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 33.76% ( 0.49) | 66.23% ( -0.49) |
| Score Analysis |
| Porto | Draw | Shakhtar Donetsk |
| 2-1 @ 9.51% ( -0.02) 2-0 @ 7.92% ( -0.11)3-1 @ 7.46% ( -0.01)1-0 @ 6.73% ( -0.1)3-0 @ 6.22% ( -0.08)3-2 @ 4.48% ( 0.04)4-1 @ 4.39% ( -0)4-0 @ 3.66% ( -0.04)4-2 @ 2.64% ( 0.03)5-1 @ 2.07% 5-0 @ 1.72% ( -0.02)5-2 @ 1.24% ( 0.01)4-3 @ 1.06% ( 0.02)Other @ 3.94% Total : 63.03% | 1-1 @ 8.08% ( -0.03) 2-2 @ 5.71% ( 0.05)0-0 @ 2.86% ( -0.04)3-3 @ 1.79% ( 0.04)Other @ 0.36% Total : 18.8% | 1-2 @ 4.85% ( 0.04) 0-1 @ 3.43% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 2.29% ( 0.05)0-2 @ 2.06% ( 0.02)1-3 @ 1.94% ( 0.04)Other @ 3.59% Total : 18.17% |
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