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Europa League | Group Stage
Nov 30, 2023 at 8pm UK
Stade Velodrome
A

Marseille
4 - 3
Ajax

Aubameyang (9' pen., 47', 90+3' pen.), Mbemba (26')
Lodi (69'), Sarr (90')
FT(HT: 2-2)
Brobbey (10', 30'), Akpom (79')
Taylor (71'), Hlynsson (76'), Rensch (90+3'), Hato (90+8')
Berghuis (63')

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Ajax 5-0 Vitesse
Saturday, November 25 at 8pm in Eredivisie

We said: Marseille 2-1 Ajax

Considering a total of 21 goals have been scored in the last six meetings between these two teams, including three apiece in their most recent clash two months ago, another enthralling encounter with plenty of goalmouth action could on the cards on Thursday. Both sides have experienced inconsistent spells of form in recent weeks, but when taking into account Marseille's solid home form and Ajax's poor away record, we believe that the hosts will come out on top to secure their place in the Europa League knockout rounds, eliminating their Dutch counterparts in the process. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Marseille win with a probability of 40.74%. A win for Ajax had a probability of 36.57% and a draw had a probability of 22.7%.

The most likely scoreline for a Marseille win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.45%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (5.92%) and 2-0 (5.15%). The likeliest Ajax win was 1-2 (7.97%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.71%). The actual scoreline of 4-3 was predicted with a 1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Marseille would win this match.

Result
MarseilleDrawAjax
40.74%22.69%36.57% (-0.0050000000000026 -0.01)
Both teams to score 66.47% (-0.0049999999999955 -0)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
65.66% (-0.007000000000005 -0.01)34.34% (0.0020000000000024 0)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
43.76% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)56.24%
Marseille Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
82.46% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)17.54% (-0.0019999999999989 -0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
51.93% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)48.07% (-0.0039999999999978 -0)
Ajax Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
80.61% (-0.0079999999999956 -0.01)19.39% (0.0019999999999989 0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
48.81% (-0.0079999999999956 -0.01)51.19% (0.0030000000000001 0)
Score Analysis
    Marseille 40.74%
    Ajax 36.57%
    Draw 22.69%
MarseilleDrawAjax
2-1 @ 8.45% (0.00099999999999945 0)
1-0 @ 5.92% (0.00099999999999945 0)
2-0 @ 5.15% (0.0010000000000003 0)
3-1 @ 4.9%
3-2 @ 4.02%
3-0 @ 2.99%
4-1 @ 2.13%
4-2 @ 1.75%
4-0 @ 1.3%
4-3 @ 0.96% (-0.001 -0)
Other @ 3.16%
Total : 40.74%
1-1 @ 9.71%
2-2 @ 6.93%
0-0 @ 3.4%
3-3 @ 2.2%
Other @ 0.44%
Total : 22.69%
1-2 @ 7.97% (-0.0010000000000003 -0)
0-1 @ 5.58%
0-2 @ 4.58%
1-3 @ 4.36% (-0.0010000000000003 -0)
2-3 @ 3.79% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
0-3 @ 2.5% (-0.0010000000000003 -0)
1-4 @ 1.79%
2-4 @ 1.56%
0-4 @ 1.03% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
3-4 @ 0.9% (-0.001 -0)
Other @ 2.53%
Total : 36.57%

Read more!
Read more!
Form Guide
Last Game: Strasbourg 1-1 Marseille
Saturday, November 25 at 8pm in Ligue 1
Last Game: Lens 1-0 Marseille
Sunday, November 12 at 7.45pm in Ligue 1
Last Game: AEK Athens 0-2 Marseille
Thursday, November 9 at 8pm in Europa League
Last Game: Marseille 0-0 Lille
Saturday, November 4 at 8pm in Ligue 1
Last Game: Marseille 3-1 AEK Athens
Thursday, October 26 at 5.45pm in Europa League
Last Game: Nice 1-0 Marseille
Saturday, October 21 at 8pm in Ligue 1
Last Game: Ajax 5-0 Vitesse
Saturday, November 25 at 8pm in Eredivisie
Last Game: Almere City 2-2 Ajax
Sunday, November 12 at 1.30pm in Eredivisie
Last Game: Ajax 0-2 Brighton
Thursday, November 9 at 5.45pm in Europa League
Last Game: Ajax 4-1 Heerenveen
Sunday, November 5 at 3.45pm in Eredivisie
Last Game: Ajax 2-0 Volendam
Thursday, November 2 at 7pm in Eredivisie
Last Game: PSV 5-2 Ajax
Sunday, October 29 at 1.30pm in Eredivisie


Sports Mole provides in-depth previews and predictions for every match from the biggest leagues and competitions in world football.
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