Liechtenstein have managed to keep the scores down since their change of manager in June, so we are not expecting the visitors to be on the end of a heavy loss on Monday, but it is very difficult to back anything other than an Iceland win here.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Iceland win with a probability of 91.35%. A draw had a probability of 6.9% and a win for Liechtenstein had a probability of 1.77%.
The most likely scoreline for a Iceland win was 3-0 with a probability of 16.1%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (15.08%) and 4-0 (12.89%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (3.05%), while for a Liechtenstein win it was 0-1 (0.95%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 12.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Iceland would win this match.
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