SM
| Current Group J Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Portugal | 6 | 24 | 18 |
| 2 | Slovakia | 6 | 6 | 13 |
| 3 | Luxembourg | 6 | -9 | 10 |
| 4 | Iceland | 6 | 1 | 6 |
| 5 | Bosnia-Herzegovina | 6 | -4 | 6 |
| 6 | Liechtenstein | 6 | -18 | 0 |
| Current Group J Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Portugal | 6 | 24 | 18 |
| 2 | Slovakia | 6 | 6 | 13 |
| 3 | Luxembourg | 6 | -9 | 10 |
| 4 | Iceland | 6 | 1 | 6 |
| 5 | Bosnia-Herzegovina | 6 | -4 | 6 |
| 6 | Liechtenstein | 6 | -18 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Iceland win with a probability of 38.34%. A win for Luxembourg had a probability of 33.32% and a draw had a probability of 28.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Iceland win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.06%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.94%) and 2-0 (7.23%). The likeliest Luxembourg win was 0-1 (11.04%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.24%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-1 draw for this match.
| Result | ||
| Iceland | Draw | Luxembourg |
38.34% ( -8.46) | 28.35% ( 1.81) | 33.32% ( 6.65) |
| Both teams to score 46.54% ( -2.15) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 40.3% ( -4.18) | 59.71% ( 4.18) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 19.99% ( -3.31) | 80.02% ( 3.31) |
| Iceland Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.85% ( -6.44) | 30.15% ( 6.44) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 33.7% ( -8.46) | 66.31% ( 8.46) |
| Luxembourg Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 66.62% ( 2.8) | 33.38% ( -2.8) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 30% ( 2.96) | 70.01% ( -2.96) |
| Score Analysis |
| Iceland | Draw | Luxembourg |
| 1-0 @ 12.06% ( -0.28) 2-1 @ 7.94% ( -1.1)2-0 @ 7.23% ( -1.65)3-1 @ 3.17% ( -1.16)3-0 @ 2.89% ( -1.37)3-2 @ 1.74% ( -0.46)4-1 @ 0.95% ( -0.61)Other @ 2.35% Total : 38.33% | 1-1 @ 13.24% ( 0.69) 0-0 @ 10.06% ( 1.48)2-2 @ 4.35% ( -0.24)Other @ 0.69% Total : 28.35% | 0-1 @ 11.04% ( 2.32) 1-2 @ 7.26% ( 0.88)0-2 @ 6.06% ( 1.63)1-3 @ 2.66% ( 0.5)0-3 @ 2.22% ( 0.71)2-3 @ 1.59% ( 0.04)Other @ 2.48% Total : 33.31% |
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