SM
| Current Group J Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Portugal | 5 | 15 | 15 |
| 2 | Slovakia | 5 | 3 | 10 |
| 3 | Luxembourg | 5 | 0 | 10 |
| 4 | Bosnia-Herzegovina | 5 | -3 | 6 |
| 5 | Iceland | 5 | 0 | 3 |
| 6 | Liechtenstein | 5 | -15 | 0 |
| Current Group J Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Portugal | 5 | 15 | 15 |
| 2 | Slovakia | 5 | 3 | 10 |
| 3 | Luxembourg | 5 | 0 | 10 |
| 4 | Bosnia-Herzegovina | 5 | -3 | 6 |
| 5 | Iceland | 5 | 0 | 3 |
| 6 | Liechtenstein | 5 | -15 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bosnia-Herzegovina win with a probability of 37.64%. A win for Iceland had a probability of 35% and a draw had a probability of 27.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bosnia-Herzegovina win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.84%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.09%) and 0-2 (6.78%). The likeliest Iceland win was 1-0 (10.37%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.95%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 10.4% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Iceland | Draw | Bosnia-Herzegovina |
35% ( 0.31) | 27.35% ( -0.07) | 37.64% ( -0.24) |
| Both teams to score 49.73% ( 0.23) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 44.18% ( 0.28) | 55.82% ( -0.28) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 23.05% ( 0.23) | 76.95% ( -0.23) |
| Iceland Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.72% ( 0.34) | 30.28% ( -0.34) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 33.54% ( 0.4) | 66.45% ( -0.4) |
| Bosnia-Herzegovina Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.33% ( -0.01) | 28.67% ( 0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 35.51% ( -0.01) | 64.48% ( 0.01) |
| Score Analysis |
| Iceland | Draw | Bosnia-Herzegovina |
| 1-0 @ 10.37% ( -0.01) 2-1 @ 7.74% ( 0.06)2-0 @ 6.19% ( 0.05)3-1 @ 3.08% ( 0.05)3-0 @ 2.47% ( 0.04)3-2 @ 1.93% ( 0.03)4-1 @ 0.92% ( 0.02)Other @ 2.31% Total : 35.01% | 1-1 @ 12.95% ( -0.02) 0-0 @ 8.68% ( -0.09)2-2 @ 4.84% ( 0.04)Other @ 0.88% Total : 27.35% | 0-1 @ 10.84% ( -0.12) 1-2 @ 8.09% ( -0.02)0-2 @ 6.78% ( -0.08)1-3 @ 3.37% ( -0.01)0-3 @ 2.82% ( -0.03)2-3 @ 2.01% ( 0.01)1-4 @ 1.05% ( -0)Other @ 2.67% Total : 37.63% |
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