Luxembourg are not often the favourites heading into matches at this level, but that will be the case on Saturday. It is really difficult to make a case for Liechtenstein in this game, and we are expecting it to be a routine home success for Holtz's side.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Luxembourg win with a probability of 82.5%. A draw had a probability of 12.9% and a win for Liechtenstein had a probability of 4.56%.
The most likely scoreline for a Luxembourg win was 2-0 with a probability of 16.85%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (13.93%) and 1-0 (13.58%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (5.76%), while for a Liechtenstein win it was 0-1 (2.32%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 16.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 2-0 win for Luxembourg in this match.
-1.83) 
1.12) 
