With the stakes having lowered for Kazakhstan, they may not perform with the same kind of intensity. With that in mind, we can only predict a low-scoring draw between two teams who have secured results above their expectations during this campaign.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Kazakhstan win with a probability of 38.75%. A win for Azerbaijan had a probability of 35.15% and a draw had a probability of 26.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Kazakhstan win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.65%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.45%) and 0-2 (6.58%). The likeliest Azerbaijan win was 1-0 (9.1%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.4%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 2.5% likelihood.
0.01) 
-0.02) 
