SM
| Current Group J Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Portugal | 9 | 32 | 27 |
| 2 | Slovakia | 9 | 8 | 19 |
| 3 | Luxembourg | 9 | -7 | 14 |
| 4 | Iceland | 9 | 3 | 10 |
| 5 | Bosnia-Herzegovina | 9 | -10 | 9 |
| 6 | Liechtenstein | 9 | -26 | 0 |
| Current Group J Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Portugal | 9 | 32 | 27 |
| 2 | Slovakia | 9 | 8 | 19 |
| 3 | Luxembourg | 9 | -7 | 14 |
| 4 | Iceland | 9 | 3 | 10 |
| 5 | Bosnia-Herzegovina | 9 | -10 | 9 |
| 6 | Liechtenstein | 9 | -26 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Luxembourg win with a probability of 88.14%. A draw had a probability of 9% and a win for Liechtenstein had a probability of 2.87%.
The most likely scoreline for a Luxembourg win was 0-2 with a probability of 15.13%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-3 (14.95%) and 0-4 (11.08%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (4.13%), while for a Liechtenstein win it was 1-0 (1.39%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 10.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Luxembourg would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Liechtenstein | Draw | Luxembourg |
2.87% ( 0.01) | 8.98% ( 0.06) | 88.14% ( -0.07) |
| Both teams to score 31.51% ( -0.15) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 65.41% ( -0.26) | 34.59% ( 0.26) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 43.47% ( -0.3) | 56.53% ( 0.29) |
| Liechtenstein Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 33.23% ( -0.13) | 66.77% ( 0.13) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 6.26% ( -0.05) | 93.74% ( 0.05) |
| Luxembourg Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 94.84% ( -0.06) | 5.16% ( 0.06) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 79.55% ( -0.18) | 20.45% ( 0.17) |
| Score Analysis |
| Liechtenstein | Draw | Luxembourg |
| 1-0 @ 1.39% ( 0.01) Other @ 1.48% Total : 2.87% | 1-1 @ 4.13% ( 0.02) 0-0 @ 3.45% ( 0.05)2-2 @ 1.24% ( -0)Other @ 0.18% Total : 8.98% | 0-2 @ 15.13% ( 0.08) 0-3 @ 14.95% ( 0.03)0-4 @ 11.08% ( -0.02)0-1 @ 10.21% ( 0.1)0-5 @ 6.57% ( -0.04)1-2 @ 6.11% ( 0.01)1-3 @ 6.04% ( -0.02)1-4 @ 4.48% ( -0.03)0-6 @ 3.25% ( -0.03)1-5 @ 2.65% ( -0.03)0-7 @ 1.38% ( -0.02)1-6 @ 1.31% ( -0.02)2-3 @ 1.22% ( -0.01)2-4 @ 0.9% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.84% Total : 88.12% |
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