SM
| Current Group J Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Portugal | 8 | 30 | 24 |
| 2 | Slovakia | 8 | 6 | 16 |
| 3 | Luxembourg | 8 | -10 | 11 |
| 4 | Iceland | 8 | 5 | 10 |
| 5 | Bosnia-Herzegovina | 8 | -7 | 9 |
| 6 | Liechtenstein | 8 | -24 | 0 |
| Current Group J Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Portugal | 8 | 30 | 24 |
| 2 | Slovakia | 8 | 6 | 16 |
| 3 | Luxembourg | 8 | -10 | 11 |
| 4 | Iceland | 8 | 5 | 10 |
| 5 | Bosnia-Herzegovina | 8 | -7 | 9 |
| 6 | Liechtenstein | 8 | -24 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bosnia-Herzegovina win with a probability of 41.89%. A win for Luxembourg had a probability of 32.17% and a draw had a probability of 25.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bosnia-Herzegovina win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.11%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.81%) and 0-2 (7.23%). The likeliest Luxembourg win was 1-0 (8.63%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.33%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 0.9% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Luxembourg | Draw | Bosnia-Herzegovina |
32.17% ( 1.55) | 25.94% ( 0.14) | 41.89% ( -1.69) |
| Both teams to score 53.58% ( 0.2) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 49.36% ( -0.04) | 50.64% ( 0.05) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 27.45% ( -0.04) | 72.55% ( 0.04) |
| Luxembourg Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 70.46% ( 1.03) | 29.54% ( -1.03) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 34.44% ( 1.24) | 65.57% ( -1.23) |
| Bosnia-Herzegovina Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.04% ( -0.84) | 23.96% ( 0.85) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 41.81% ( -1.23) | 58.19% ( 1.23) |
| Score Analysis |
| Luxembourg | Draw | Bosnia-Herzegovina |
| 1-0 @ 8.63% ( 0.26) 2-1 @ 7.52% ( 0.25)2-0 @ 5.26% ( 0.3)3-1 @ 3.06% ( 0.19)3-2 @ 2.18% ( 0.08)3-0 @ 2.14% ( 0.18)4-1 @ 0.93% ( 0.08)Other @ 2.45% Total : 32.17% | 1-1 @ 12.33% ( 0.07) 0-0 @ 7.08% ( 0.01)2-2 @ 5.37% ( 0.05)3-3 @ 1.04% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.12% Total : 25.94% | 0-1 @ 10.11% ( -0.23) 1-2 @ 8.81% ( -0.17)0-2 @ 7.23% ( -0.36)1-3 @ 4.2% ( -0.19)0-3 @ 3.44% ( -0.26)2-3 @ 2.56% ( -0.04)1-4 @ 1.5% ( -0.11)0-4 @ 1.23% ( -0.13)2-4 @ 0.91% ( -0.04)Other @ 1.9% Total : 41.88% |
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