SM
| Current Group J Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Portugal | 3 | 13 | 9 |
| 2 | Slovakia | 3 | 3 | 7 |
| 3 | Luxembourg | 3 | -4 | 4 |
| 4 | Iceland | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| 5 | Bosnia-Herzegovina | 3 | -2 | 3 |
| 6 | Liechtenstein | 3 | -13 | 0 |
| Current Group J Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Portugal | 3 | 13 | 9 |
| 2 | Slovakia | 3 | 3 | 7 |
| 3 | Luxembourg | 3 | -4 | 4 |
| 4 | Iceland | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| 5 | Bosnia-Herzegovina | 3 | -2 | 3 |
| 6 | Liechtenstein | 3 | -13 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bosnia-Herzegovina win with a probability of 62.13%. A draw had a probability of 23.3% and a win for Luxembourg had a probability of 14.59%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bosnia-Herzegovina win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.46%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (13.28%) and 2-1 (9.16%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.66%), while for a Luxembourg win it was 0-1 (6.21%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 2.1% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Bosnia-Herzegovina | Draw | Luxembourg |
62.13% ( 18.2) | 23.28% ( 1.57) | 14.59% ( -19.77) |
| Both teams to score 40.9% ( -28.89) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 43.24% ( -26.93) | 56.76% ( 26.93) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 22.29% ( -26.71) | 77.7% ( 26.71) |
| Bosnia-Herzegovina Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 82.05% ( -3.44) | 17.94% ( 3.45) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 51.23% ( -6.27) | 48.76% ( 6.27) |
| Luxembourg Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 49.84% ( -31.78) | 50.16% ( 31.78) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 15.23% ( -35.25) | 84.77% ( 35.25) |
| Score Analysis |
| Bosnia-Herzegovina | Draw | Luxembourg |
| 1-0 @ 15.46% ( 10.31) 2-0 @ 13.28% ( 8.31)2-1 @ 9.16% ( 0.75)3-0 @ 7.61% ( 4.41)3-1 @ 5.25% ( -0.17)4-0 @ 3.27% ( 1.72)4-1 @ 2.25% ( -0.36)3-2 @ 1.81% ( -2.78)5-0 @ 1.12% ( 0.53)Other @ 2.91% Total : 62.12% | 1-1 @ 10.66% ( 1.94) 0-0 @ 9% ( 6.34)2-2 @ 3.16% ( -3.97)Other @ 0.45% Total : 23.27% | 0-1 @ 6.21% ( 1.7) 1-2 @ 3.68% ( -3.7)0-2 @ 2.14% ( -1.68)Other @ 2.56% Total : 14.59% |
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