Euro Champ Qualifying | Group Stage

Sep 11, 2023 at 7.45pm UK

Estadio Municipal de Loule

Portugal
9 - 0
Luxembourg

Inacio (12', 45+4'), Ramos (18', 33'), Jota (57', 77'), Horta (67'), Fernandes (83'), Felix (88')

FT(HT: 4-0)

Thill (54'), Mahmutovic (65'), Gerson (76')

Preview

Data Analysis

Lineups

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Monday's European Championship Qualifying clash between Portugal and Luxembourg, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Predicted Lineups

Sports Mole looks at how Portugal could line up in Monday's Euro 2024 qualification match with Luxembourg.

Form, Standings, Stats

Portugal

All competitions

Euro Champ Qualifying

Last Game: Slovakia 0-1 Portugal
Friday, September 8 at 7.45pm in Euro Champ Qualifying

Current Group J Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Portugal	5	15	15
2	Slovakia	5	3	10
3	Luxembourg	5	0	10
4	Bosnia-Herzegovina	5	-3	6
5	Iceland	5	0	3
6	Liechtenstein	5	-15	0

Luxembourg

All competitions

Euro Champ Qualifying

Last Game: Luxembourg 3-1 Iceland
Friday, September 8 at 7.45pm in Euro Champ Qualifying

Current Group J Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Portugal	5	15	15
2	Slovakia	5	3	10
3	Luxembourg	5	0	10
4	Bosnia-Herzegovina	5	-3	6
5	Iceland	5	0	3
6	Liechtenstein	5	-15	0

We said: Portugal 2-0 Luxembourg

Luxembourg deserve huge credit for their recent performances and results in the section, but it is very difficult to back them to avoid defeat in this match. Portugal are looking strong under Martinez and have enough quality to comfortably make it six wins from their six games in Group J. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Portugal win with a probability of 77.03%. A draw had a probability of 15.2% and a win for Luxembourg had a probability of 7.73%.

The most likely scoreline for a Portugal win was 2-0 with a probability of 13.93%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (11.54%) and 3-0 (11.21%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.23%), while for a Luxembourg win it was 0-1 (2.99%). The actual scoreline of 9-0 was predicted with a 0% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Portugal would win this match.

Result
Portugal	Draw	Luxembourg
77.03% ( -0.07)	15.24% ( 0.02)	7.73% ( 0.05)

Both teams to score 42.36% (

0.18)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

58.58% (

0.09)

41.42% (

-0.09)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

36.19% (

0.1)

63.82% (

-0.09)

Portugal Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

91.06% (

0.01)

8.94% (

-0)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

69.48% (

0.02)

30.53% (

-0.01)

Luxembourg Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

46.52% (

0.2)

53.48% (

-0.19)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

13.05% (

0.12)

86.95% (

-0.11)

Score Analysis

Portugal 77.01%

Luxembourg 7.73%

Draw 15.24%

Portugal	Draw	Luxembourg
2-0 @ 13.93% ( -0.05) 1-0 @ 11.54% ( -0.04) 3-0 @ 11.21% ( -0.04) 2-1 @ 8.72% ( 0.02) 3-1 @ 7.02% ( 0.02) 4-0 @ 6.77% ( -0.02) 4-1 @ 4.24% ( 0.01) 5-0 @ 3.27% ( -0.01) 3-2 @ 2.2% ( 0.02) 5-1 @ 2.05% ( 0.01) 4-2 @ 1.33% ( 0.01) 6-0 @ 1.32% ( -0) Other @ 3.41% Total : 77.01%	1-1 @ 7.23% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 4.78% ( -0.02) 2-2 @ 2.73% ( 0.02) Other @ 0.5% Total : 15.24%	0-1 @ 2.99% ( 0) 1-2 @ 2.26% ( 0.02) 0-2 @ 0.94% ( 0.01) Other @ 1.54% Total : 7.73%