SM
| Current Group J Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Portugal | 5 | 15 | 15 |
| 2 | Slovakia | 5 | 3 | 10 |
| 3 | Luxembourg | 5 | 0 | 10 |
| 4 | Bosnia-Herzegovina | 5 | -3 | 6 |
| 5 | Iceland | 5 | 0 | 3 |
| 6 | Liechtenstein | 5 | -15 | 0 |
| Current Group J Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Portugal | 5 | 15 | 15 |
| 2 | Slovakia | 5 | 3 | 10 |
| 3 | Luxembourg | 5 | 0 | 10 |
| 4 | Bosnia-Herzegovina | 5 | -3 | 6 |
| 5 | Iceland | 5 | 0 | 3 |
| 6 | Liechtenstein | 5 | -15 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Portugal win with a probability of 77.03%. A draw had a probability of 15.2% and a win for Luxembourg had a probability of 7.73%.
The most likely scoreline for a Portugal win was 2-0 with a probability of 13.93%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (11.54%) and 3-0 (11.21%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.23%), while for a Luxembourg win it was 0-1 (2.99%). The actual scoreline of 9-0 was predicted with a 0% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Portugal would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Portugal | Draw | Luxembourg |
77.03% ( -0.07) | 15.24% ( 0.02) | 7.73% ( 0.05) |
| Both teams to score 42.36% ( 0.18) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 58.58% ( 0.09) | 41.42% ( -0.09) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 36.19% ( 0.1) | 63.82% ( -0.09) |
| Portugal Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 91.06% ( 0.01) | 8.94% ( -0) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 69.48% ( 0.02) | 30.53% ( -0.01) |
| Luxembourg Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 46.52% ( 0.2) | 53.48% ( -0.19) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 13.05% ( 0.12) | 86.95% ( -0.11) |
| Score Analysis |
| Portugal | Draw | Luxembourg |
| 2-0 @ 13.93% ( -0.05) 1-0 @ 11.54% ( -0.04)3-0 @ 11.21% ( -0.04)2-1 @ 8.72% ( 0.02)3-1 @ 7.02% ( 0.02)4-0 @ 6.77% ( -0.02)4-1 @ 4.24% ( 0.01)5-0 @ 3.27% ( -0.01)3-2 @ 2.2% ( 0.02)5-1 @ 2.05% ( 0.01)4-2 @ 1.33% ( 0.01)6-0 @ 1.32% ( -0)Other @ 3.41% Total : 77.01% | 1-1 @ 7.23% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 4.78% ( -0.02)2-2 @ 2.73% ( 0.02)Other @ 0.5% Total : 15.24% | 0-1 @ 2.99% ( 0) 1-2 @ 2.26% ( 0.02)0-2 @ 0.94% ( 0.01)Other @ 1.54% Total : 7.73% |
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