SM
| Current Group E Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Czech Republic | 3 | 5 | 7 |
| 2 | Albania | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 3 | Poland | 2 | -1 | 3 |
| 4 | Moldova | 3 | -2 | 2 |
| 5 | Faroe Islands | 2 | -3 | 1 |
| Current Group E Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Czech Republic | 3 | 5 | 7 |
| 2 | Albania | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 3 | Poland | 2 | -1 | 3 |
| 4 | Moldova | 3 | -2 | 2 |
| 5 | Faroe Islands | 2 | -3 | 1 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Poland win with a probability of 52.51%. A draw had a probability of 24.4% and a win for Moldova had a probability of 23.08%.
The most likely scoreline for a Poland win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.45%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.64%) and 0-2 (9.51%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.6%), while for a Moldova win it was 1-0 (6.99%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 1.7% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Moldova | Draw | Poland |
23.08% ( -20.85) | 24.4% ( 2.7) | 52.51% ( 18.15) |
| Both teams to score 51.6% ( -18.18) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 50% ( -20.16) | 49.99% ( 20.16) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 28.02% ( -20.99) | 71.98% ( 20.99) |
| Moldova Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 63.71% ( -21.79) | 36.29% ( 21.8) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 26.92% ( -30.58) | 73.07% ( 30.58) |
| Poland Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 80.99% ( -0.62) | 19% ( 0.62) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 49.44% ( -1.04) | 50.56% ( 1.04) |
| Score Analysis |
| Moldova | Draw | Poland |
| 1-0 @ 6.99% ( 1.84) 2-1 @ 5.88% ( -2.53)2-0 @ 3.54% ( -1.43)3-1 @ 1.99% ( -3.43)3-2 @ 1.65% ( -2.94)3-0 @ 1.2% ( -2)Other @ 1.83% Total : 23.08% | 1-1 @ 11.6% ( 2.88) 0-0 @ 6.9% ( 4.23)2-2 @ 4.89% ( -2.24)3-3 @ 0.91% ( -1.68)Other @ 0.1% Total : 24.4% | 0-1 @ 11.45% ( 6.94) 1-2 @ 9.64% ( 2.26)0-2 @ 9.51% ( 5.69)1-3 @ 5.34% ( 1.17)0-3 @ 5.26% ( 3.11)2-3 @ 2.7% ( -1.32)1-4 @ 2.22% ( 0.45)0-4 @ 2.19% ( 1.27)2-4 @ 1.12% ( -0.58)Other @ 3.09% Total : 52.51% |
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