SM
| Current Group D Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | France | 3 | 3 | 6 |
| 2 | Australia | 3 | -1 | 6 |
| 3 | Tunisia | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 4 | Denmark | 3 | -2 | 1 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a France win with a probability of 71.7%. A draw had a probability of 17.5% and a win for Poland had a probability of 10.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a France win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.53%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (11.04%) and 3-0 (9.49%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.32%), while for a Poland win it was 0-1 (3.66%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 7.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that France would win this match.
| Result | ||
| France | Draw | Poland |
71.7% ( -0.14) | 17.49% ( 0.08) | 10.8% ( 0.05) |
| Both teams to score 47.43% ( -0.08) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 58.19% ( -0.21) | 41.81% ( 0.2) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 35.79% ( -0.21) | 64.21% ( 0.21) |
| France Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 89.66% ( -0.09) | 10.33% ( 0.09) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 66.21% ( -0.2) | 33.78% ( 0.2) |
| Poland Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 52.9% ( -0.04) | 47.1% ( 0.04) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 17.44% ( -0.03) | 82.56% ( 0.02) |
| Score Analysis |
| France | Draw | Poland |
| 2-0 @ 12.53% ( 0.02) 1-0 @ 11.04% ( 0.06)3-0 @ 9.49% ( -0.02)2-1 @ 9.44% ( 0.01)3-1 @ 7.14% ( -0.02)4-0 @ 5.38% ( -0.03)4-1 @ 4.05% ( -0.03)3-2 @ 2.69% ( -0.01)5-0 @ 2.44% ( -0.02)5-1 @ 1.84% ( -0.02)4-2 @ 1.53% ( -0.01)6-0 @ 0.93% ( -0.01)Other @ 3.2% Total : 71.69% | 1-1 @ 8.32% ( 0.04) 0-0 @ 4.87% ( 0.04)2-2 @ 3.55% Other @ 0.75% Total : 17.49% | 0-1 @ 3.66% ( 0.03) 1-2 @ 3.13% ( 0.01)0-2 @ 1.38% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.63% Total : 10.8% |
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