It is hard to envisage many goals being scored between two limited outfits, but we expect Azerbaijan to edge a tight encounter.
The visitors are playing at a higher Nations League level for a reason, with their superior international ranking suggesting that they should be able to beat Moldova.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Moldova win with a probability of 43.33%. A win for Azerbaijan had a probability of 32.53% and a draw had a probability of 24.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Moldova win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.03%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.12%) and 2-0 (6.58%). The likeliest Azerbaijan win was 1-2 (7.66%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.15%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Azerbaijan would win this match.
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