SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Spain win with a probability of 42.98%. A win for Italy had a probability of 31.15% and a draw had a probability of 25.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Spain win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.28%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.92%) and 2-0 (7.46%). The likeliest Italy win was 0-1 (8.48%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.29%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Spain would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Spain | Draw | Italy |
42.98% ( -0.05) | 25.87% ( 0.06) | 31.15% ( -0.01) |
| Both teams to score 53.4% ( -0.19) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 49.32% ( -0.25) | 50.68% ( 0.25) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 27.41% ( -0.22) | 72.58% ( 0.22) |
| Spain Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.56% ( -0.13) | 23.44% ( 0.13) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 42.56% ( -0.19) | 57.44% ( 0.19) |
| Italy Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.75% ( -0.14) | 30.25% ( 0.13) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 33.58% ( -0.16) | 66.42% ( 0.16) |
| Score Analysis |
| Spain | Draw | Italy |
| 1-0 @ 10.28% ( 0.06) 2-1 @ 8.92% ( -0.01)2-0 @ 7.46% ( 0.02)3-1 @ 4.32% ( -0.02)3-0 @ 3.61% ( -0.01)3-2 @ 2.58% ( -0.02)4-1 @ 1.57% ( -0.01)4-0 @ 1.31% ( -0.01)4-2 @ 0.94% ( -0.01)Other @ 2% Total : 42.97% | 1-1 @ 12.29% ( 0.03) 0-0 @ 7.09% ( 0.07)2-2 @ 5.33% ( -0.03)3-3 @ 1.03% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.12% Total : 25.86% | 0-1 @ 8.48% ( 0.05) 1-2 @ 7.35% ( -0.01)0-2 @ 5.07% ( 0.01)1-3 @ 2.93% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 2.13% ( -0.02)0-3 @ 2.02% ( -0)Other @ 3.17% Total : 31.15% |
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