SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AFC Wimbledon win with a probability of 59.93%. A draw had a probability of 21.3% and a win for Weymouth had a probability of 18.78%.
The most likely scoreline for an AFC Wimbledon win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.96%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.78%) and 2-0 (9.75%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.99%), while for a Weymouth win it was 1-2 (5.1%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 6.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that AFC Wimbledon would win this match.
| Result | ||
| AFC Wimbledon | Draw | Weymouth |
59.93% ( 0.34) | 21.28% ( -0.15) | 18.78% ( -0.19) |
| Both teams to score 55.27% ( 0.15) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 58.01% ( 0.37) | 41.98% ( -0.37) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 35.61% ( 0.37) | 64.38% ( -0.37) |
| AFC Wimbledon Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 86.38% ( 0.22) | 13.62% ( -0.22) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 59.23% ( 0.44) | 40.77% ( -0.44) |
| Weymouth Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 63.99% ( 0.01) | 36.01% ( -0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 27.21% ( 0.01) | 72.79% ( -0.01) |
| Score Analysis |
| AFC Wimbledon | Draw | Weymouth |
| 2-1 @ 9.96% ( 0) 1-0 @ 9.78% ( -0.08)2-0 @ 9.75% ( -0)3-1 @ 6.62% ( 0.05)3-0 @ 6.48% ( 0.05)3-2 @ 3.38% ( 0.03)4-1 @ 3.3% ( 0.05)4-0 @ 3.23% ( 0.05)4-2 @ 1.68% ( 0.03)5-1 @ 1.32% ( 0.03)5-0 @ 1.29% ( 0.03)Other @ 3.16% Total : 59.93% | 1-1 @ 9.99% ( -0.07) 2-2 @ 5.08% ( 0)0-0 @ 4.9% ( -0.08)3-3 @ 1.15% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.16% Total : 21.28% | 1-2 @ 5.1% ( -0.04) 0-1 @ 5.01% ( -0.08)0-2 @ 2.56% ( -0.04)1-3 @ 1.74% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 1.73% ( 0)Other @ 2.65% Total : 18.78% |
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