Exeter competes two divisions higher than their visitors, and while Barnet are likely to give the hosts a difficult test, we expect the hosts to eventually secure the win.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Exeter City win with a probability of 46.83%. A win for Barnet had a probability of 29.03% and a draw had a probability of 24.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Exeter City win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.37%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.96%) and 2-0 (7.44%). The likeliest Barnet win was 1-2 (7.1%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.28%). The actual scoreline of 5-3 was predicted with a 0.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Exeter City would win this match.
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