SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Hereford United win with a probability of 54.1%. A win for Ilkeston had a probability of 23.76% and a draw had a probability of 22.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Hereford United win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.75%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.37%) and 0-2 (8.07%). The likeliest Ilkeston win was 2-1 (6.12%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.12%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 8.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Hereford United would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Ilkeston | Draw | Hereford United |
23.76% ( 0.41) | 22.14% ( -0.01) | 54.1% ( -0.4) |
| Both teams to score 59.94% ( 0.55) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 60.66% ( 0.49) | 39.34% ( -0.49) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 38.32% ( 0.51) | 61.68% ( -0.51) |
| Ilkeston Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 70.15% ( 0.61) | 29.84% ( -0.61) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 34.07% ( 0.73) | 65.93% ( -0.73) |
| Hereford United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 85.44% ( 0.04) | 14.56% ( -0.04) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 57.38% ( 0.08) | 42.61% ( -0.08) |
| Score Analysis |
| Ilkeston | Draw | Hereford United |
| 2-1 @ 6.12% ( 0.07) 1-0 @ 5.25% ( -0.03)2-0 @ 3.18% ( 0.03)3-1 @ 2.47% ( 0.07)3-2 @ 2.38% ( 0.07)3-0 @ 1.28% ( 0.03)Other @ 3.08% Total : 23.76% | 1-1 @ 10.12% ( -0.05) 2-2 @ 5.9% ( 0.08)0-0 @ 4.35% ( -0.1)3-3 @ 1.53% ( 0.05)Other @ 0.24% Total : 22.13% | 1-2 @ 9.75% ( -0.03) 0-1 @ 8.37% ( -0.18)0-2 @ 8.07% ( -0.16)1-3 @ 6.27% ( -0.01)0-3 @ 5.18% ( -0.1)2-3 @ 3.79% ( 0.06)1-4 @ 3.02% ( -0)0-4 @ 2.5% ( -0.04)2-4 @ 1.83% ( 0.03)1-5 @ 1.16% ( 0)0-5 @ 0.96% ( -0.02)Other @ 3.21% Total : 54.1% |
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