The exact scale of Liverpool's COVID outbreak, and which players have been affected, remains uncertain, but it could be the case that an in-form Shrewsbury side never have a better chance to pick up a first-ever win at Anfield.
Despite that, we are still expecting Liverpool to progress through to the fourth round relatively comfortably. The visitors do not score many goals and even a second-string Liverpool side should have enough to see off League One opposition.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Liverpool win with a probability of 78.16%. A draw had a probability of 14.3% and a win for Shrewsbury Town had a probability of 7.53%.
The most likely scoreline for a Liverpool win was 2-0 with a probability of 13.02%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (11.08%) and 1-0 (10.19%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.8%), while for a Shrewsbury Town win it was 0-1 (2.66%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 4.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Liverpool would win this match.
