We said: Liverpool 3-0 Shrewsbury Town
The exact scale of Liverpool's COVID outbreak, and which players have been affected, remains uncertain, but it could be the case that an in-form Shrewsbury side never have a better chance to pick up a first-ever win at Anfield.
Despite that, we are still expecting Liverpool to progress through to the fourth round relatively comfortably. The visitors do not score many goals and even a second-string Liverpool side should have enough to see off League One opposition.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Liverpool win with a probability of 78.16%. A draw had a probability of 14.3% and a win for Shrewsbury Town had a probability of 7.53%.
The most likely scoreline for a Liverpool win was 2-0 with a probability of 13.02%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (11.08%) and 1-0 (10.19%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.8%), while for a Shrewsbury Town win it was 0-1 (2.66%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 4.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Liverpool would win this match.
