We said: Liverpool 3-1 Aston Villa
Gerrard is yet to completely shore up this Villa defence, and a first-choice Liverpool XI - many of whom are well-rested - will likely give the visitors a harsh dose of reality on Saturday.
There can be no room for sentimentality upon Gerrard's return to Anfield, but his side are highly unlikely to compete with a near full-strength Liverpool team away from home.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Liverpool win with a probability of 72.4%. A draw had a probability of 17% and a win for Aston Villa had a probability of 10.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Liverpool win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.24%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.5%) and 3-0 (9.52%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.07%), while for an Aston Villa win it was 0-1 (3.46%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 10.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Liverpool would win this match.
