SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajax win with a probability of 48.38%. A win for Olympiacos had a probability of 29.4% and a draw had a probability of 22.2%.
The most likely scoreline for an Ajax win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.19%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.65%) and 2-0 (6.34%). The likeliest Olympiacos win was 1-2 (6.98%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.64%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 6.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Ajax would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Ajax | Draw | Olympiacos |
48.38% ( 0.62) | 22.22% ( 0) | 29.4% ( -0.63) |
| Both teams to score 65.17% ( -0.44) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 65.18% ( -0.4) | 34.82% ( 0.4) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 43.21% ( -0.45) | 56.79% ( 0.45) |
| Ajax Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 85.15% ( 0.06) | 14.85% ( -0.07) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 56.83% ( 0.12) | 43.18% ( -0.12) |
| Olympiacos Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.53% ( -0.58) | 23.47% ( 0.57) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 42.52% ( -0.84) | 57.49% ( 0.84) |
| Score Analysis |
| Ajax | Draw | Olympiacos |
| 2-1 @ 9.19% ( 0.07) 1-0 @ 6.65% ( 0.15)2-0 @ 6.34% ( 0.16)3-1 @ 5.84% ( 0.06)3-2 @ 4.23% ( -0.03)3-0 @ 4.03% ( 0.11)4-1 @ 2.78% ( 0.03)4-2 @ 2.02% ( -0.01)4-0 @ 1.92% ( 0.06)5-1 @ 1.06% ( 0.02)4-3 @ 0.98% ( -0.02)Other @ 3.35% Total : 48.38% | 1-1 @ 9.64% ( 0.06) 2-2 @ 6.66% ( -0.06)0-0 @ 3.49% ( 0.07)3-3 @ 2.05% ( -0.05)Other @ 0.4% Total : 22.22% | 1-2 @ 6.98% ( -0.08) 0-1 @ 5.05% ( 0.02)0-2 @ 3.66% ( -0.05)1-3 @ 3.37% ( -0.1)2-3 @ 3.22% ( -0.09)0-3 @ 1.77% ( -0.06)1-4 @ 1.22% ( -0.06)2-4 @ 1.17% ( -0.05)Other @ 2.95% Total : 29.4% |
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