Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajax win with a probability of 63.85%. A draw had a probability of 18.9% and a win for Sint-Truiden had a probability of 17.2%.
The most likely scoreline for an Ajax win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.69%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.67%) and 1-0 (7.54%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.43%), while for a Sint-Truiden win it was 1-2 (4.71%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 3.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Ajax would win this match.
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