SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Manchester City win with a probability of 41.93%. A win for Atletico Madrid had a probability of 32.81% and a draw had a probability of 25.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Manchester City win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.26%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.88%) and 2-0 (6.9%). The likeliest Atletico Madrid win was 0-1 (8.01%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.93%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-2 win for Atletico Madrid in this match.
| Result | ||
| Manchester City | Draw | Atletico Madrid |
41.93% ( 3.17) | 25.26% ( -0.81) | 32.81% ( -2.36) |
| Both teams to score 56.09% ( 2.18) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 52.51% ( 3.05) | 47.49% ( -3.05) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 30.3% ( 2.76) | 69.7% ( -2.76) |
| Manchester City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.44% ( 2.98) | 22.56% ( -2.98) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 43.85% ( 4.25) | 56.15% ( -4.25) |
| Atletico Madrid Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 72.43% ( 0.02) | 27.57% ( -0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 36.9% ( 0.03) | 63.1% ( -0.03) |
| Score Analysis |
| Manchester City | Draw | Atletico Madrid |
| 1-0 @ 9.26% ( -0.36) 2-1 @ 8.88% ( 0.43)2-0 @ 6.9% ( 0.33)3-1 @ 4.41% ( 0.56)3-0 @ 3.42% ( 0.44)3-2 @ 2.84% ( 0.36)4-1 @ 1.64% ( 0.33)4-0 @ 1.27% ( 0.26)4-2 @ 1.06% ( 0.21)Other @ 2.25% Total : 41.93% | 1-1 @ 11.93% ( -0.45) 0-0 @ 6.22% ( -0.83)2-2 @ 5.72% ( 0.28)3-3 @ 1.22% ( 0.16)Other @ 0.16% Total : 25.25% | 0-1 @ 8.01% ( -1.06) 1-2 @ 7.69% ( -0.29)0-2 @ 5.16% ( -0.68)1-3 @ 3.3% ( -0.12)2-3 @ 2.46% ( 0.12)0-3 @ 2.22% ( -0.29)1-4 @ 1.06% ( -0.04)Other @ 2.91% Total : 32.81% |
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