Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Villarreal win with a probability of 38.88%. A win for Atletico Madrid had a probability of 36.49% and a draw had a probability of 24.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Villarreal win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.55%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.97%) and 2-0 (5.94%). The likeliest Atletico Madrid win was 1-2 (8.24%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.45%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 6.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.
Result | ||
Villarreal | Draw | Atletico Madrid |
38.88% ( 1.49) | 24.62% ( -0.05) | 36.49% ( -1.44) |
Both teams to score 59.09% ( 0.13) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
56.07% ( 0.19) | 43.92% ( -0.19) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
33.69% ( 0.19) | 66.31% ( -0.19) |
Villarreal Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
77.49% ( 0.85) | 22.51% ( -0.85) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
43.93% ( 1.25) | 56.07% ( -1.25) |
Atletico Madrid Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
76.25% ( -0.67) | 23.75% ( 0.67) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
42.11% ( -0.97) | 57.89% ( 0.97) |
Score Analysis |
Villarreal | Draw | Atletico Madrid |
2-1 @ 8.55% ( 0.19) 1-0 @ 7.97% ( 0.13) 2-0 @ 5.94% ( 0.24) 3-1 @ 4.25% ( 0.2) 3-2 @ 3.05% ( 0.08) 3-0 @ 2.96% ( 0.19) 4-1 @ 1.58% ( 0.11) 4-2 @ 1.14% ( 0.06) 4-0 @ 1.1% ( 0.1) Other @ 2.34% Total : 38.88% | 1-1 @ 11.45% ( -0.04) 2-2 @ 6.14% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 5.34% ( -0.04) 3-3 @ 1.46% ( 0.01) Other @ 0.21% Total : 24.62% | 1-2 @ 8.24% ( -0.19) 0-1 @ 7.68% ( -0.22) 0-2 @ 5.52% ( -0.27) 1-3 @ 3.95% ( -0.17) 2-3 @ 2.94% ( -0.05) 0-3 @ 2.65% ( -0.19) 1-4 @ 1.42% ( -0.09) 2-4 @ 1.06% ( -0.04) 0-4 @ 0.95% ( -0.09) Other @ 2.08% Total : 36.49% |
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