Atletico are again expected to be missing some important players for this match, and Villarreal are likely to provide stern opposition for Simeone's side. It would not be a surprise to see the visitors grind out a narrow win, but we are expecting the points being shared on Sunday might.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Villarreal win with a probability of 38.88%. A win for Atletico Madrid had a probability of 36.49% and a draw had a probability of 24.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Villarreal win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.55%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.97%) and 2-0 (5.94%). The likeliest Atletico Madrid win was 1-2 (8.24%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.45%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 6.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.
1.49) 
-0.05) 
