Both sides have found the back of the net in the last five meetings between Espanyol and Atletico Madrid, and such a sequence should certainly continue on Wednesday given their respective penchants for goalscoring.
The hosts certainly have more to play for than their podium-chasing visitors at this stage, but their lingering defensive concerns should prove fatal against a rampant Atletico crop, who should right the wrongs of their loss to Elche with a resounding win to plunge Espanyol back into demotion danger.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Madrid win with a probability of 58.11%. A draw had a probability of 23.7% and a win for Espanyol had a probability of 18.23%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Madrid win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.22%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (11.37%) and 1-2 (9.61%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.18%), while for a Espanyol win it was 1-0 (6.5%). The actual scoreline of 3-3 was predicted with a 0.7% likelihood.
0.09) 
-0.32) 
