The distraction of Liverpool's visit to the Etihad in a week's time cannot creep into the minds of Man City's XI here, but another mammoth encounter with a somewhat depleted defence is not a cause for optimism.
Simeone's Atletico have been nothing if not resilient when at their best - Man United found that out well enough - and with Simeone having almost all of his big-hitters available, we can envisage the in-form Colchoneros holding Guardiola's men to a score draw before the return leg in the Spanish capital.
Read more.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Manchester City win with a probability of 50.01%. A win for Atletico Madrid had a probability of 28.66% and a draw had a probability of 21.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Manchester City win was 2-1 with a probability of 9%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-1 (6.14%) and 2-0 (5.93%). The likeliest Atletico Madrid win was 1-2 (6.67%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.79%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 5.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Manchester City would win this match.
